Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Common Motors to try to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one could attribute to foreign competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Various commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, notably in neglecting the domestic content in foreign autos and the significance of shifts within the provide chain over time.

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Complicating your train even more is the truth that people are likely to hold their vehicles longer nowadays than they used to. That is largely as a result of high quality has gone up, decreasing the frequency wanted to purchase a brand new automotive. I think this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the other components you talked about.